Political Promises
Political promises are generally empty, meaningless gestures made by candidates when they are trolling for votes. “I will listen to all the people,” they say. Or, “I will protect the interests of all ‘the people’ when I am in office.”
Do you believe statements like these when politicians make them? Or, do you shrug them off with the thought in the back of your mind that it’s just more of the political hype that goes with running for office, not really expecting anything except more self-serving actions once candidates are in office?
Thirty years ago California state Senator H.L. (Bill) Richardson wrote an interesting and insightful book with the intriguing title, “What makes you think we read the bills?” - in which he offers a penetrating analysis of the fact that the so-called majority does not really elect public officials and making the point that politicians are actually obligated to a very small percentage of the voters, and it is this minority they listen to.
Using the example of a district with a population of 525,000, he shows how the candidate who won was elected with a plurality of just 16,000 voters.
Senator Richardson’s observation is something I believe most people instinctively know: that once elected, notwithstanding all their talk about “listening to the people,” politicians do what they want, not what their so-called constituents, “the people,” may say. Politicians generally don’t really listen to anyone except the limited number of supporters who are directly involved in helping them get elected or who help them stay in office.
Some selected quotes from Senator Richardson’s book outline his conclusions:
- “In a democracy we ‘know’ the majority elects. Right? Wrong! Majorities rarely, if ever, elect.” (pg. 112)
- “In a democracy, most politicians are inevitably influenced by public opinion. Right? Wrong again.” (pg. 112) Note: We have seen some notable exceptions to this rule in recent years, specifically when large numbers of savvy Internet users overwhelm legislators with faxes, email messages and telephone calls about certain hot button issues, such as immigration, which can bring sufficient pressure to bear on office holders to induce them to change a particular position. The Internet, of course, was not available at the time Senator Richardson was in office or wrote his book.
- “…if we waited for majorities to elect, most of our legislative chambers would be empty. Obviously, only those who register can vote (or so we are told). This eliminates a sizable portion of the eligible voters at the very start. In fact, the very term ‘eligible’ voter tells us that there are those who are ineligible to vote.” (pg.112)
- “Since the contest almost inevitably comes down to Democrat versus Republican, those who register as ‘independent’ or who ‘decline to state’ have little nothing to say in the primary elections. To have a meaningful voice, these independent and uncommitted voters must then choose between the two candidates fielded by the very political parties they have chosen not to join.” (pg.113)
- Commenting on the fact that less than fifty percent of the registered voters often turn out in a primary election Senator Richardson notes, “A vote delivers the power of the state into the hands of the elected official. A non vote simply transfers the decision as to who shall hold this power into the hands of those who do vote…At this point, another factor comes into play – gerrymandering. Most political district lines are established by the party in power…A candidate with little chance of victory has even a smaller chance of attracting the necessary financial support. Money creates winners and winners attract money.” (pg.113)
- “Since the majority-party primary is usually crowded with a number of hopefuls, the primary winner is quite often nominated with a plurality of twenty-five percent, or even less. I know of one district that had a population of 525,000 persons. About 400,000 could have qualified to vote, but only 225,000 bothered to register. In the primary slightly more than fifty percent of those registered turned out at the polls to vote – about 120,000 people altogether. The minority party garnered 50,000 votes of that total, split between two lackluster candidates. The majority party had eight candidates, of whom five were strong contenders. The remaining 70,000 votes were split among these eight candidates, and the victor won with 16,000. In the general election this candidate easily defeated the minority-party nominee.” (pg.114)
Senator Richardson’s book is still available - at Amazon.com. It’s an interesting and entertaining insight into the political process and confirms the fact that things really haven’t changed all that much in the 30 years since he was in office.
© 2008 Harris R. Sherline, All Rights Reserved
Are Americans Ready For A Black President?
One of the key questions about Barack Obama’s candidacy for the presidency is whether Americans are willing to elect a black man (or woman) to the highest office in the land. The issue is racism and just how deep and wide it runs through the nation’s electorate. Is it so widespread that no African-American can be elected, ever, or have Americans progressed to the point that the majority of voters would vote for a black candidate.
“A recent Gallup poll reveals that Americans are much more likely to elect a black man or a woman president than a Mormon or an old man.” The poll found that 94% of the voters surveyed would vote for a black candidate and 88% said they would vote for a woman. (outsidethebeltway.com, February 20, 2007). The question is, how reliable is such a survey? Most observers speculate that many people do not answer truthfully when they are asked if they would vote for a black candidate because they don’t want to be seen as prejudiced.
Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson both ran for president, and although they were probably motivated by reasons other than an expectation that they could win, they at least showed that it is possible for an African-American to seek the office. As distasteful and these two may be to many people, my sense is that Barrack Obama is benefiting from their trailblazing efforts, whatever their motivations.
I’m also reminded of the overwhelming support for Colin Powell as a potential Republican candidate to run against Bill Clinton in the 1996 presidential election. Powell’s highly successful leadership of coalition forces during the Gulf War paved the way for him to run for president if he chose to do so. Although he declined, I am firmly convinced he could have won.
The flip side of the white vote is black solidarity at the polls. Although blacks are only about 13% of the U.S. population, they often vote as a block, which enables them to influence the outcome of certain elections, in spite of their minority status, especially in regional or local political contests. Ralph Brauer, author of “The Strange Death of Liberal America,” notes: “The African American candidates who have attained higher office all follow a similar pattern – they come from states that have significant numbers of African Americans, mostly in large cities such as Chicago or Boston, Illinois accounts for 40% of our African-American Senators and two-thirds since Reconstruction.”
Richard Thompson Ford, Professor of Law at Stanford Law School, recently observed, “Defeatists insist Obama cannot win because the average American will never be able to let go of racial prejudice. Yet he somehow speaks to overflowing houses, packed with enthusiastic voters from the American heartland.”
I don’t agree that the average American voter is as prejudiced as the “defeatists” claim, that they will be unable to “let go of racial prejudice” in the voting booth. Thomas Sowell, a highly regarded economist and senior fellow at the Hoover Institute, who also happens to be African-American, commented: “No doubt it is only a matter of time before there is a black president…The issue is whether we want to reach that landmark so badly that we are willing to overlook how questionably that landmark is reached.”
If Barack Obama doesn’t win the general election, it won’t be because of white prejudice, it will be because of his qualifications, or lack thereof, and his policies. The nation is ready for a black president. It just may not be this candidate.
© 2008 Harris R. Sherline, All Rights Reserved